i just can't seem to bring myself to delete this page which i originally posted in 1998.
i've heard it all. your computer will cease to work on 1 january 2000. all manufacturing will come to a halt! the stock market will crash! the grocery store shelves will be empty! the utilities will fail! massive black-outs! no natural gas! the second dark ages!
listen! yes, the two-digit date stamp is a nuisance. however, it's not going to cause an era of doom and gloom. most industrial controllers don't even know what day of the week it is. they either don't have clock circuits or don't make use of them. of course they failed the y2k compliancy test! but it doesn't matter. that's a large percentage of the test data used to scare you! and you being scared is how these so-called entrepreneurs are hoping to make their money. you being scared is what will cause a dip--not a crash--in the stock markets. (wall street and the banking industry has been testing the impact of 1 january 2000 on their systems by rolling the clock ahead on their machines.) you being scared is what will force you to buy their "surviving y2k" books, to attend their seminars, to buy their audio tapes, etc. talk about a money-making machine!
let's tackle the issue of the power grid, because its imminent failure--it is claimed--is going to cause a cascading series of catastrophes: all leading to the next dark ages. give me a break! people don't understand that, while power utilities do use computers and microprocessors, they are used primarily to collect data ("receiver/transmitters", RT's, are installed throughout the power grid) and to display this data for the operator's benefit. the coolest part about the design of these "centralized command and control centers" is that, while system reliability is increased, operation of the power grid is independent of the control center's operational status. this is a "fail safe" operational feature of the power distribution system. all communication between the "centralized control center" and the distributed equipment (e.g., substations) could be totally severed: yet the system will operate normally! power generation and synchronization, distribution, and protection will not cease to operate at 12:00am, 1 january 2000. to the distribution system, 00:00:00 of 1 january 2000 is just another moment in time. no different from the previous. no different from the next.
go out, celebrate the arrival of the last year of this century. set your alarm clocks with confidence. wake up with a hangover! you'll wake up to a house full of operating appliances.
now, even if there are anomalies (e.g., fossil fuel deliveries) that can be attributed somehow to the y2k phenomenon, the power grid is NOT going to "collapse" because it is NOT controlled by computers (which, by the way, do not care about the day: only about the "condition" of the power system).
here's one of those examples of using statistical data to scare the masses. yes, there are billions of lines of code (loc). yes, probably only a very small percentage of the loc has been checked (i.e., actually looked at). so what? perusing the source code is the _last_ thing that you would need to do to check y2k compliancy! yet, i continue to here this very issue constantly raised on the news. "there a billions of lines of code, yet a very small percentage has been looked at!"
tbdfi (to be filled in)
tbdfi
a close friend, dr. steve belovich (former professor of electrical engineering and founder/v.p. of bv technologies and now president of smart-data, inc. (http://www.smart-data.com ) has the following to say (draft of article to appear in the april 1999 issue of "industrial computing magazine"):
"Software is ubiquitous. IT budgets are expanding and we are more dependent upon the correct functioning of computers and software than at any time in the past. The Y2K problem and its attendant hysteria is an eloquent testimonial to this interdependence of man and machine. This trend shows no sign of abating and, in fact, will increase in the foreseeable future. Designing correct, reliable and safe software will be The Issue in the coming millennium. A primary causes of bad software is the tremendous demand for IT and factory automation systems. This high demand puts an unbelievable time pressure on software suppliers and systems integrators to get the job done on schedule - regardless of the number of bugs. Time-to-market is more important than getting it right. Another related cause of bad software is that there is insufficient time and money to do the job right. Software projects are invariably underfunded and the completion dates are almost invariable missed. Software project management is evolving and it is still more art than science. Under-estimates of system longevity also contribute to the bad software problem. Why plan more than a few years ahead when there's no budget to do that? Project managers get paid and promoted based upon short-term metrics. None of them get much credit for designing systems that work too far into the future. In fact, there are financial incentives not to do that. An "upgrade" or "fix" can always be sold at a later date - long after the customer has securely chained themselves to the current software version and cannot easily change horses. One of the biggest causes of bad software is the simple fact that software purchases and users are generally completely clueless about quality workmanship and suppliers. They have little idea of what to look for, what questions to ask and how to separate fact from fiction. The best marketed programs and software systems get the most air time and become de facto "standards" even though there is little unbiased, trustworthy evidence on which to make an informed buying decision. In sharp contrast to cars and other equipment, buying software generally places obligations and constraints on future buying decisions. Many companies, having standardized on a certain word processor merely because the site license was cheap, found that the cost to convert all their important documents to a better word processor far exceeded the original purchase price of the word processor. Choosing software merely on the basis of acquisition cost and ignoring future operational dependency and flexibility is arguably one of the biggest mistakes that can be made."
it worries me when the masses, who because it is not their areas of knowledge or expertise, are scared by the media and con-artists (yes, most are not the well-intentioned, altruistic individuals whom they'd like you to believe they are). the media must investigate: ask true experts, not the rogue, and present non-sensationalized information. unfortunately, sensationalism sells.
now, for a bit of levity concerning this whole issue i include the following scare that is purported to have occurred 1000 years ago:
Canterbury, England. A.D. 999.
An atmosphere close to panic prevails today throughout Europe as the millennial year 1000 approaches: bringing with it the so-called "Y1K Bug," a menace which, until recently, hardly anyone had ever heard of. Prophets of doom are warning that the entire fabric of Western Civilization based as it now is upon monastic computations, could collapse, and that there is simply not enough time left to fix the problem.
Just how did this disaster-in-the-making ever arise? Why did no one anticipate that a change from a three-digit to a four-digit year would throw into total disarray all liturgical chants and all metrical verse in which any date is mentioned? Every formulaic hymn, prayer, ceremony and incantation dealing with dated events will have to be re-written to accommodate three extra syllables. All tabular chronologies with three-space year columns, maintained for generations by scribes using carefully hand-ruled lines on vellum sheets, will now have to be converted to four-space columns, at enormous cost.
In the meantime, the validity of every official event, from baptisms to burials, from confirmations to coronations, may be called into question. "We should have seen it coming," says Brother Cedric of St. Michael's Abbey, here in Canterbury. "What worries me most is that 'THOUSAND' contains the word 'THOU,' which occurs in nearly all our prayers, and of course always refers to God. Using it now in the name of the year will seem almost blasphemous, and is bound to cause terrible confusion. Of course, we would always use Latin, but that might be even worse-the Latin word for 'Thousand' is 'Mille' - which is the same as the Latin for 'mile.' We won't know whether we're talking about time or distance!"
Stonemasons are already reported threatening to demand a proportional pay increase for having to carve an extra numeral in all dates on tombstones, cornerstones, and monuments. Together with its inevitable ripple effects, this alone could plunge the hitherto-stable medieval economy into chaos. A conference of clerics has been called at Winchester to discuss the entire issue, but doomsayers are convinced that the matter is now one of personal survival. Many families, in expectation of the worst, are stocking up on holy water and indulgences.
From Fr. EM, Cleveland
questions, comments, concerns? e-mail me.
This site developed and maintained by greg kimnach.